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2013年11月21日星期四

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The first day of negotiations to merge the Finance and HELP bills is now underway downstairs in S219 of the Capitol Building ?? just past the bathrooms off the Senate floor (I’m in the third floor press gallery).chanel outlet At the antique-looking wooden conference table: Harry Reid (at the northern head of the table) flanked by Chris Dodd and Max Baucus. Also present: Rahm Emanuel, Nancy-Ann DeParle, Peter Orszag, Kathleen Sebellius and Phil Schiliro. While these folks meet behind closed doors many members are chaffing to have their say including the very vocal Jay Rockefeller, Chuck Schumer and Ron Wyden. Senator Dick Durbin begged his colleagues for patience.gucci outlet online ??They going to try and blend together these two bills into something that we can move on the floor and start to amend and change,?? Durbin told reporters, around the corner from the meeting. ??The final bill will look different. And before we reach the final bill all of the Democratic senators and anybody who wants to have a positive input will have their say in this.?? Apparently, as of today, the number of non-Democrats seeking to have “positive input” has doubled to two.replica chanel shoes Susan Collins told reporters she??s been in talks with? ??a lot of colleagues on the other side of the aisle, particularly Joe Lieberman, who shares many of the same concerns that I do.” ??It??s so hard to predict what??s going to happen in these negotiations and I would note that there are a number of senators on both sides of the aisle that think that the Finance Committee bill is the best of the options so far but still isn??t where it needs to be and I??m in that group,?? Collins added. Indeed, wait-and-see seemed to be the mantra for many senators at the weekly policy lunches today (held on a Wednesday due to Columbus Day). ??It??s the best version in my view so far but it still needs a lot of improvement,?? said Senator Mary Landrieu.louis vuitton outlet online ??Senator Baucus will be arguing for a middle of the road centrist approach but there are still a lot of challenges with this bill.?? While a few groups have begun banding together ?? some of the moderates, some progressives ?? with so much up in the air most of the Senate is simply holding its breath (or fire) until a final bill is produced. And as I wrap this up the meeting is breaking up ?? having met for just over an hour. A fun tidbit: on the table were chocolate covered pretzels, M&Ms, almonds and bottled water.louis vuitton outlet online A photographer jokingly asked Rahm where his Diet Coke is (Rahm famously lives off the stuff). They still expect to have a bill by the end of next week.
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“I stand by this man because he stands for things.cheap gucci belts Not only for things, he stands on things. Things like aircraft carriers, and rubble, and recently flooded city squares. And that sends a strong message that no matter what happens to America she will always rebound with the most powerfully staged photo-ops in the world.” So said Stephen Colbert at the 2006 White House Correspondent??s Association.fake gucci shoes The object of his sarcasm was of course President George W. Bush, who just months earlier had brought flood lights to Jackson Square in New Orleans, to proclaim live on television, ??This government will learn the lessons of Hurricane Katrina.?? No one really believed him. Bush had, at that point, been saying reassuring things for weeks, as the flood waters rose, the death toll mounted, and thousands of people found themselves abandoned.gucci handbag for sale His government??s failure was so complete that even his biggest presidential move–a prime time address–looked like a stunt, a photo op, a reaffirmation of all that had gone wrong in the first place. So what of our current president, who holds no blame for the bungled response in 2005? In February of 2008, Obama went to Tulane University and promised to right Bush??s wrongs. “No more Brownie, no more heads of the Arabian horses association in charge of FEMA,” he said. Since then, under pressure from new crises, Obama has not made much of the New Orleans recovery, at least in public by himself.louis vuitton neverfull But that does not mean he has ignored it. Senior administration officials have made regular trips to the still embattled city, focusing on how to speed reconstuction. “I would say what they have demonstrated in this first year is a low-key but genuine commitment to accelerate the business of recovery, ” Amy Liu, deputy director of the Brookings Institution’s Metropolitan Policy Program, recently told the Times Picayune. Others have been less generous in their praise.loui vuitton The Institute for Southern Studies polled over 50 community groups in the Gulf Coast to find out how well Obama was doing in addressing the Katrina delivery. He got mostly D grades, which is what Bush got from the same group, though Obama got more D+ grades and Bush got more D- grades. So how has Obama decided to respond? With a couple quick events Thursday, a charter school visit and a Town Hall. He will be on the ground in Louisiana for a scheduled 3 hours and 45 minutes, before jetting off to a fundraiser in San Francisco.fake gucci shoes Not exactly a lit city square in prime time, but the comparisons to Bush have arrived anyway. This week, in the White House Briefing Room, Press Secretary Robert Gibbs did his best to push back: Don??t judge anybody on the amount of time that they??ve spent there. Judge only what this administration promised they would do, what they??ve done every day, and what they??re continuing to work on. We feel enormously confident that if you judge us on that, that we??ll come out well compared??not just compared to previous efforts, but more importantly, tangible improvements in the rebuilding and in the lives of people that stayed there.louis vuitton belts As of August, nearly four years after the hurricane, the Brookings institution found that 152,904 households receiving mail in Orleans Parish, compared with 198,232 before the storm and 133,966 two years later. Some 62,557 homes stand vacant or abandoned. The work is in other words not yet done. And the people of New Orleans hope that the Thursday Obama visit will represent much more than just another photo op.replica chanel shoes
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The health insurance industry is not an unbiased source when it comes to figuring out how the Senate Finance Committee health reform bill will affect costs.louis vuitton speedy No group stands to lose more and will more fiercely protect its own interests – meaning profits. But that doesn??t mean all studies funded by insurers are completely without merit. A report released over the weekend and commissioned by America??s Health Insurance Plans ?? the lobbying group for private insurers ?? was widely panned as a selective, dishonest analysis intended to derail the Senate Finance Committee’s plan for health reform. The study said insurance premiums would would cause the typical family health-insurance policy to rise $20,700 more than if no reforms were enacted.fake ugg boots Shortly after a backlash began, Pricewaterhouse Coopers, which authored the report, put out a statement saying it knew the study was not comprehensive and excluded key provisions that would have changed the result. But a new report commissioned by the Blue Cross Blue Shield Association and released Wednesday is different. BCBSA’s analysis, conducted by the consulting firm Oliver Wyman, also predicts insurance premiums for individuals could rise dramatically – for young adults, by some 50% more than without reform. The analysis is carefully written, includes necessary caveats and considers some key pieces of the Finance committee bill omitted from the AHIP study – like the billions in subsidies that would be made available to Americans to help them buy coverage.gucci handbag for sale Said one longtime health insurance actuary, ??This is a nice piece of fruit compared to the rotten tomato we got on Monday,?? referring to the earlier AHIP study. One focus of the BCBSA study is the age rating bands built into the Senate Finance Committee bill – these dictate how much difference would be allowed to exist in health insurance premiums for old and young enrollees. Under the Finance bill, insurers would be permitted to charge its oldest customers four times as much as its youngest customers – this is a 4 to 1 ratio. (The House bill calls for a 2 to 1 ratio.handbags louis vuitton) The insurance industry had pushed for at least 5 to 1 and makes the point in its study that the tighter the age band, the higher the costs will be for young adults. This is a valid point – one of the tenets of Democratic health reform plans is that young, healthy enrollees in the individual insurance market would subsidize coverage for older, sicker adults. But here the BCBSA study falters, ignoring a provision in the Finance committee bill that would create room for high-deductible, low-cost health insurance plans for Americans 25 and younger. These policies, known as “young invincibles plans,” would greatly mitigate price spikes.fake uggs Kurt Giesa, an Oliver Wyman actuary who worked on the BCBSA study said, however, this provision was ignored because “we didn’t think it would have a material affect on the overall analysis.” The BCBSA study also ignored the existence of exchanges which would spur much-needed competition among insurers. Again, the Giesa said “we didn’t find it would have a material impact,” even though the text of the study itself acknowledges that the Congressional Budget Office predicts a 4 to 5 % drop in premiums sold through the exchanges due to administrative cost reductions and competition. The BCBSA study also makes the argument that the weaker the requirement that uninsured Americans purchase coverage, the higher costs will be for everyone else.louis vuitton backpack for sale This is not a scare tactic – this is true. The Finance committee’s bill has a weaker individual mandate than the bills passed by other committees – penalties for not buying coverage are lower and phase in slowly over time. (The insurance industry wants a strong individual mandate at the outset not because it would reduce premiums for customers, but to get those customers in the first place. The industry stands to gain tens of millions of new enrollees if harsh penalties discourage people to go without coverage.louis vuitton handbags for sale) Said the longtime actuary who reviewed the merits of the study, “The effect of having a very weak mandate penalty is absolutely true, but the question is how bad it would be…if there’s one flaw with this report, it’s that it talks about the ends of ranges as opposed to the averages….They bring up the right topics, but they’re on the high side on almost everything.” Shortly after the report was released, one White House official, eager to link the BCBSA report to the now thoroughly debunked AHIP study told Talking Points Memo, “This report isn’t quite as egregious as the AHIP report…if the AHIP report was a $3.50 bill, this one’s a $3.loui vuitton00 bill.” The health insurance industry has an agenda here. Congressional leaders are in the process of hammering out details for the bills that will reach the House and Senate floors and this may be the last chance the industry has to influence final language. But some arguments made by the insurers reveal some hard truths pro-reformers have not been eager to advertise: Allowing people who can’t afford it to opt out of insurance coverage would be bad for everyone else.fake louis vuitton Setting minimum levels of benefits, which reform proposals would do, means the cheapest insurance available under a reformed system would be more expensive that the cheapest available now. (Of course, the cheapest insurance available now leaves many Americans dangerously under-insured.) And young adults buying individual insurance policies would pay a little more than their fair share to help keep costs down for older adults. No matter who says it, these facts are true.louis vuitton belts And every effort made to ease these burdens just adds to the cost of health care reform.
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2013年11月20日星期三

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Back in the 1950s, Senator Joe McCarthy ran roughshod over the political landscape, accusing people hither and yon of being communists, even taking on the U.fake gucci shoesS. Army in a moment of personal pique ???and, finally, receiving a classic scolding at the hands of a Boston Brahman, the lawyer Joseph Welch, “Have you no decency at long last, sir?” These days we have Rush Limbaugh, who runs roughshod over the Republican Party, his antics untrammeled by GOP elected officials who should know better but quake at the power of his microphone. Until yesterday. For the first time, members of the Republican hierarchy?separated themselves from Limbaugh over his rancid remarks about Sandra Fluke, an activist who wants to make contraception a mandatory part of health-insurance plans.fake gucci shoes To be sure, the scolding wasn’t exactly Welchian; arguably it wasn’t even a scolding ???but it was something less than the full-throated obeisance that Limbaugh is used to. ?According to the New York Times: On Friday, the House speaker, John A. Boehner, called the Limbaugh comments ??inappropriate.?? Rick Santorum, the former senator whose run for the Republican presidential nomination has thrust social conservatism into the spotlight, told CNN that Mr.louis vuitton replica Limbaugh was ??being absurd.?? But, he added, ??an entertainer can be absurd.?? Which is, of course, absurd. Limbaugh is something more, and less, than an entertainer.louis vuitton handbags for sale He is a demagogue. His remarks were not meant to entertain ???they were meant to incite and demean. I should add that Mitt Romney said that Limbaugh’s were not the words he would have used, which, in classic supine Romney fashion, doesn’t disassociate himself from the larger position that Limbaugh took. Our supple democracy often throws up suppurating pustules like Limbaugh; sooner or later a decent society builds antibodies to reject them.handbags louis vuitton Glenn Beck ???you remember him ???managed to complete this cycle in about two years. Today’s tiny Republican rebellion may be the first sign that Limbaugh is losing his hold on the GOP. On a related topic: while the Blunt bill was ridiculously written, and might have included anything, I still have reservations about government requiring?coverage of contraception by employers. There are practical and theoretical arguments for this.loui vuitton The practical argument is, quite simply, that the Catholic Church operates many fine hospitals, schools, universities and other social facilities; I do believe that it should have the right to expect that its employees respect its doctrines (obviously, as with every right, this one exists within reasonable limitations). That goes for several practices that I find foolish and anachronistic ???namely, the church’s opposition to contraception and also to gay adoption. But when you compare the good done by Catholic social services with the harm done by the church’s anachronistic prudery, the good overwhelms the harm. It is a practical good ???and also, I believe, a constitutional right ???that these services, especially those that service the poor, be allowed to flourish, and even receive government support, within the context of the church’s doctrines (again, within reason).louis vuitton backpack for sale Those Republicans who argue this case in narrow constitutional terms have a point: the First Amendment’s establishment clause was conceived to keep government out of religion as surely as it was intended to prevent a state religion from controlling the government. As for the theoretical point: this argument proves the absurdity of our employer-provided health-insurance system. For one thing, we don’t require employers to provide health insurance ???and yet, in this instance, the Obama Administration is mandating the coverage of contraception on companies that are doing the right thing by providing health insurance in the first place. In an ideal system, employers wouldn’t have this responsibility.handbags louis vuitton It is absurd, in the fierce competition of a global economy, that U.S. employers continue to have this burden. An ideal system would include an individual mandate but would be funded by a single payer ???as Senators Ron Wyden and Bob Bennett proposed ???through a progressive system of tax credits.louis vuitton shoes replica Individuals would then have the choice of buying plans that included various features or not ???contraception, dental coverage, eyeglasses, you name it. Again, these plans would have to include certain minimum requirements, like catastrophic coverage, annual physicals and hospital care. But, in the end, it should be up to individuals to decide the shape and size of their health care coverage ???in a democracy we have to assume that the vast majority will act in their enlightened self-interest. 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Bob Kerrey has given the Democratic Party the chance of actually retaining a Senate seat in Nebraska–and so, predictably, the usual leftist wingnuts have decided to trash him.fake chanel shoes The left-wing blogosphere has been in a swoon in recent years; it just can’t compete for attention with the hilarious extremism of the Republican party. But it retains its predilection for self-destructive silliness. As for Kerry, I’ve known him for 20 years. I like him a lot, especially when we disagree–he’s always been one of those politicians willing to actually think in the presence of a journalist.louis vuitton speedy He has military experience that is sorely lacking in today’s Democratic Party and more, he has a passionate desire to keep learning, and the courage to modify his positions based on new information. I wouldn’t care if he were running as a Republican; he’s an independent thinker and an iconoclast, and funny as hell. I’m thrilled by his return to public life.
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What a difference a year makes.louis vuitton shoes replica Last year when President Barack Obama stood before the crowd at the American Israeli Public Affairs Committee??s annual policy conference in Washington, he was on his heels, reeling from a week of miscommunications with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the Middle East peace process. That week began with what Washington perceived as Netanyahu lecturing Obama during a joint press availability, followed by a saber-rattling speech by Netanyahu before Congress ?? so over-the-top that Obama felt he had to respond point-by-point in his speech to AIPAC at the end of the week. So this year, the President took advantage of the flipped schedule ?? he spoke first with AIPAC on Sunday before he??s scheduled to meet with Netanyahu in the Oval Office on Monday ?? to set the tone and draw some lines. 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(LIST: Top 10 Greatest Speeches) The President then ticked off the number of ways he has supported Israel in the last year: by standing with them when flotillas of human rights activists tried to run Israel??s blockade of the West Bank; by boycotting the Durbin conference on racism when it defined Zionism as racism; by helping rescue trapped employees in the Israeli embassy under siege in Cairo; and by standing up at the United Nations General Assembly and defending Israel when the Palestinians pushed to be recognized as a state.ugg boots outlet ??So if during this political season you hear some question my Administration??s support for Israel, remember that it??s not backed up by the facts. And remember that the U.S.-Israel relationship is simply too important to be distorted by partisan politics.handbags louis vuitton America??s national security is too important. Israel??s security is too important,?? Obama said to a standing ovation. (Before Obama spoke Liz Cheney, daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney and former deputy assistant secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, previewed what will surely be the GOP mantra expected in Monday??s speeches by the Republican presidential candidates, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich. ??No other President has done more to delegitimize and undermine the Jewish State,?? she told the crowd to applause.louis vuitton replica ??Next year, we will be here celebrating the election of a true friend to Israel.??) But the audience grew quiet when Obama addressed the issue that will dominate these talks: Iran. As he said in an interview earlier this week with The Atlantic Monthly, Obama reiterated that everything, including the use of military force, remains on the table with Iran and that simple containment of Iran??s suspected nuclear weapons program would not suffice. ??We all prefer to resolve this issue diplomatically.cheap gucci belts Having said that, Iran??s leaders should have no doubt about the resolve of the United States, just as they should not doubt Israel??s sovereign right to make its own decisions about what is required to meet its security needs,?? Obama said to yet another standing ovation. I have said that when it comes to preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, I will take no options off the table, and I mean what I say. That includes all elements of American power. A political effort aimed at isolating Iran; a diplomatic effort to sustain our coalition and ensure that the Iranian program is monitored; an economic effort that imposes crippling sanctions; and, yes, a military effort to be prepared for any contingency.louis vuitton speedy?? (MORE: Obama Offers Israel a Path to Avoid an Iran War) Still, noting the efficacy and unprecedented nature of the sanctions on Iran, many of which have not yet begun to take effect, Obama chided those who have been pushing for armed conflict. ??Already, there is too much loose talk of war,?? he said. ??Over the last few weeks, such talk has only benefited the Iranian government, by driving up the price of oil, which they depend upon to fund their nuclear program. For the sake of Israel??s security, America??s security, and the peace and security of the world, now is not the time for bluster; now is the time to let our increased pressure sink in, and to sustain the broad international coalition that we have built.louis vuitton neverfull?? It was clear both the Israelis and the Administration wanted to avoid an embarrassing repeat of last year. Obama was introduced by Israeli President Shimon Peres, who thanked Obama for ??being such a good friend.?? ??My friends the United States and Israel share the same goal: preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. There is no space between us,?? Peres said.replica chanel shoes ??Mr. President, I know your commitment to Israel is deep and profound. Under your leadership cooperation between the United States and Israel has reach its highest level. 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They don??t call economics the dismal science for nothing, which helps explain why U.louis vuitton speedyS. politics is riveted once more by social issues. After being locked for three years in a torture chamber of financial disaster, our elected officials are now looking at the improving metrics and deciding it??s O.K.louis vuitton speedy to step back into their comfort zone: the culture wars. Why deal with layoffs, foreclosures and Greece when it??s so much easier to indulge in debate over contraception, religious liberty and gay marriage ?? especially in an election year? It??s a no-brainer. Both political parties understand that. God knows so do we in the media.fake chanel shoes And so does Florida, America??s bellwether, where the urge to leave the dark forest of economic recession and head for the sunny beach of social demagoguery looks particularly strong ?? and not just inside the West Palm Beach radio studio where Rush Limbaugh??s knuckles are dragging more loudly than usual these days. When GOP presidential hopeful Rick Santorum recently cast aspersions on higher education, calling President Obama ??a snob?? for wanting every American to attend college, legislators in Tallahassee, as if on cue, announced they were poised to slash almost $300 million from Florida??s higher-education budget. This, in the state that already spends the least in the nation per capita on higher education and reaps what it sows in the form of one of America??s most embarrassingly low-tech and low-wage economies. (SPECIAL: How Students Are Paying for College) But the Sunshine State is just trying to stay ahead of the political curve: school funding is pass辿; school prayer is back! Last week, even though the Florida legislature can??t be bothered to shore up the colleges and universities that could help reduce the state??s retro dependence on tourism, condo construction and citrus fruit, it did find the time and energy to pass a measure that would permit student-led prayer in public schools.fake ugg boots The bill??s sponsor, Democratic state senator Gary Siplin of Orlando, prefers the term inspirational messages to prayer, but Governor Rick Scott, a conservative Republican who is expected to sign the measure, made it clear what this is all about: ??As you know,?? Scott said, ??I believe in Jesus Christ, and I believe individuals should have a right to say a prayer.?? Duly noted, Governor ?? I go to Mass myself on Sundays ?? but the right to say prayers and the right to impose them on public-school convocations are two very different things. If Scott signs the bill, it will face a barrage of constitutional challenges, and rightly so. Yet that commotion is probably just fine with Florida lawmakers ?? the same group that gave us the Terri Schiavo fiasco and so many other notorious culture-war moments ?? as long as it helps voters forget that Tallahassee is undermining the state??s college campuses and, in turn, its prospects for reforming an economy that was one of the hardest hit by the Great Recession.replica chanel shoes (PHOTOS: The Recession of 1958) In fact, despite a state unemployment rate still hovering close to 10%, school prayer is just one of the Florida legislature??s culture-war priorities. On Friday, March 2, the state house approved Florida??s version of a bill to keep ??foreign law?? ?? read, Islamic Shari’a ?? from insidiously seeping into the U.S. judicial system, even though the notion of a Shari’a ??threat?? to Florida or any other state is as delusional as it is bigoted.fake gucci shoes The Florida house passed another bill last week that would force women to wait 24 hours before having an abortion and would require abortion clinics to be owned by physicians ?? read, not by Planned Parenthood. But that ??righteous war,?? as one GOP state representative put it, grabs more headlines than the tedium of real economic development. Meanwhile, the independent Florida Center for Fiscal and Economic Policy reports that since the recession started, Tallahassee has cut an astonishing one-third of the state??s higher-education budget. During that same period, Florida, the nation??s fourth largest state, has lost more than 10,000 high-tech jobs.loui vuitton Some of those vanished when the NASA space-shuttle program shut down, but that in itself is another reminder that the peninsula can hardly afford to keep ignoring the examples set by the nation??s three largest states, California, Texas and New York, whose universities have played a major role in developing high-tech industries. (MORE: Election 2012: Romney’s Long March) Take Miami-Dade County, Florida??s largest metropolitan area. It ranks 13th among 15 large U.S.fake ugg boots metropolises in the ratio of high-tech companies to total workers, according to a recent study by Texas-based Avalanche Consulting. A big reason: its share of college-educated residents is dead last, as is its share of workers trained for science- and technology-related fields. That affirms a constant complaint from high-tech firms about Florida in general: they can??t find enough skilled Floridians to make it worth their while to move there. Miami-Dade did rank fourth in academic-research spending increases, particularly in the biomedical arena.louis vuitton replica But much of that growth has occurred at the University of Miami, a private institution. What mattered more to Tallahassee this past year was making sure Florida was the first state in the country to bar pediatricians from asking patients and their families if they had guns in their homes. Never mind that 1 in 25 cases at U.S.fake uggs pediatric trauma centers involves gunshot wounds; to Scott and the legislature, it was about protecting privacy. A federal judge recently blocked that law, and we??re likely to see more federal judges called in on the state??s school-prayer, anti-Shari’a and antiabortion measures. No matter; the debate will continue. The country??s no longer interested in talking about the assault on our portfolio values.ugg boots outlet?Both the right and the left are happily obsessed again with the righteous war over moral values ?? and Florida is leading the way.?Even if its schools don??t stand a prayer. PHOTOS: Political Pictures of the Week, Feb.
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2013年11月19日星期二

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Newt Gingrich is promising to build NASA colonies on the moon.fake ugg boots Mitt Romney is imagining Fidel Castro in “a nether region,” which one can only assume is a polite Mormon phrase for hell. Both men are all over the radio, putting on their best Spanish accents. No point in diluting the pandering: this is Florida, the primary big leagues, with more votes at stake than in the past three contests combined. And the latest TIME/CNN poll shows the two pack leaders running even.louis vuitton outlet online Here’s why Tuesday’s consequential Florida primary is totally different from anything the 2012 GOP race has seen so far. It’s a closed primary. That means Democrats and independents can’t vote and there are no last-minute registration options as there were in Iowa. (The registration books for the GOP presidential primary closed Jan.chanel handbags for sale 3.) This is most likely to disadvantage Romney, who’s performed relatively well with Republican-leaning independents to date, and Ron Paul, who collected a lot of atypical GOP primary voters in Iowa and New Hampshire. It’s one of the reasons Paul’s not contesting Florida at all. There’s absentee voting.louis vuitton outlet online About half of the 520,000 Florida Republicans who’ve requested advance ballots have already cast their votes by mail. While that’s not a huge chunk of the electorate–1.9 million Republicans voted in the 2008 GOP primary–it probably gives Romney a slight edge given the dynamics of the race to date. For much of? January, Newt was near the nadir of his epic 30-point collapse in the Florida polls, from which he’s now almost fully recovered.gucci outlet online Romney and his allies spent heavily on TV therre during that period, while Gingrich and Co. had to yet to purchase a single spot. But there’s early voting, too. In-person ballot-casting started right after Gingrich’s big South Carolina win and more than 120,000 voters have turned up this week.chanel handbags for sale Media afterglow has helped Newt’s poll numbers and another fat $5 million check to Gingrich’s PAC from casino magnate Sheldon Adelson and wife Miriam has given Gingrich a significant presence on TV. Even so, ad spending totals are weighted heavily in Romney’s favor. According to NBC News, Romney and his allies have spent a total of $14.4 million on Florida ads to date.loui vuitton Team Gingrich has spent just $1.9 million, most of it from the Adelson-fueled super PAC. Florida advertising is really expensive. TV time in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina is penny-saver cheap compared to Florida.loui vuitton Seven of its metro areas are among the 100 largest media markets in the country, including three–Tampa-St. Petersburg, Miami-Ft. Lauderdale and Orlando-Daytona Beach-Melbourne–that fall into the top 20. Romney’s cash advantage could end up making all the difference.louis vuitton handbags for sale And there’s quite a difference when it comes to first place or second place in Florida. It’s winner takes all. Well, winner takes half. Um, probably.replica chanel shoes The Republican Party of Florida broke some RNC rules by moving up the date of its primary and was thus stripped of half its 99 nominating delegates at this year’s convention (in Tampa!), which the RPOF has decided to award in their entirety to the primary winner ?? which is another potential RNC no-no. The winner-take-all nature of the contest (as well as closed primary rules, prohibitive costs, etc.) have kept Paul out of the race, rendered Santorum a non-factor and set up an all-or-nothing scenario for Romney or Gingrich: whoever ends up finishing second will leave Florida with nothing to show for their huge investment. However, there are now rumblings of a legal challenge to try to force the RPOF to award its delegates proportionally.fake louis vuitton shoes But it won’t be settled anytime soon. Florida helped seal Romney’s fate in 2008. After losing to Mike Huckabee in Iowa and John McCain in New Hampshire and South Carolina, Romney entered Florida four years ago desperate for a win. He didn’t get it.fake gucci shoes McCain took 36% of the vote to Romney’s 31%, and with it, all 57 delegates. McCain won in part on the strength of Florida’s Latino (mostly Cuban) Republicans, of which he claimed an outright majority, and the effectiveness of his electability argument. This time, Romney is the perceived moderate with the electability argument and, lo and behold, he’s nearing majority support among Latino Republicans in the state. In 2008, the knockout blow didn’t come till Super Tuesday, but Florida, as always, was a political haymaker.fake uggs
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Ben Bernanke is playing chicken with the real economy.chanel outlet By most measures, the U.S. economy in the past few months seems to be improving. The unemployment rate has been falling.cheap gucci belts Manufacturing appears to be perking up. U.S. car companies are back in business.ugg boots outlet And home sales even rose in December. (LIST: The Heavy Hitters of Davos) Yet, on Wednesday, the U.S. central bank said it plans to keep short-term interest rates near zero until at least late 2014.louis vuitton replica That is 18 months longer than its previous promise of mid-2013. Low interest rates usually indicate the economy is weak. So a promise to keep interest rates low for another two and a half years, suggests that the Fed thinks the economy will be in pretty bad shape for, well, about another two and a half years. Or maybe not.louis vuitton neverfull When Bernanke was pressed at the news conference following the Fed’s interest-rate announcement on why it chose late 2014 and not, say, 2015 or 2020 ???after all, the Fed’s own prediction was that unemployment would still be at a high 7.5% in late 2014 ???Bernanke didn’t have a good answer. He said the Fed’s ability to “forecast three or four years out is not very good.” But we didn’t need Bernanke to tell us that.louis vuitton replica We all know now how poor the Fed’s ability to predict the economy is. Recently released documents from Fed meetings back in 2007 show that almost none of the Fed’s policymakers thought we were headed for a recession at the time. So why do it? Like many other things the Fed does, to help the markets. Promising low interest rates should help goose the stock and bond markets, and it did this time around as well.louis vuitton belts Shortly after the Fed made its announcement, both stocks and bonds rose. The question is whether it will have the opposite effect on the real economy. (More: Why Economists Are Rooting for Inflation) In a regular recession, lower interest rates cause people to borrow money to buy houses or start new businesses. In a really bad recession, like this one, that economic jump-start mechanism breaks down.replica chanel shoes People are too scared to take risks. Companies look for signs that the economy is back on the upswing before borrowing to expand. Confidence, not interest rates, is the real problem. That’s why some people have been worried for a while about the signaling effect of keeping interest rates at zero.fake uggs They are worried that the Fed is undermining confidence in the recovery. And even if they are not worried about the recovery, knowing interest rates will remain low may cause people to put off purchases. For instance, if you know interest rates are going to be low for another two years, why jump into the housing market now, when prices might still fall. But if you are afraid that interest rates will rise soon, you might be more likely to buy a house now in order to get a better deal on the loan.louis vuitton handbags for sale Bernanke’s critics say raising interest rates even a little bit would do more to help confidence than keeping interest rates low for another two years or more. Interest rates have been near zero for some time now. Anyone who wants to borrow has had their chance. The problem is, with short-term interest rates already at zero, the Fed doesn’t have many options.replica louis vuitton So it is engaging in this weird dance of talking down the economy in order to boost the markets, hoping that the market will in turn boost the economy. It only works if the people in the real economy believe the market more than they believe the Fed. And I’m not sure that’s a great bet. My experience with bull markets is that the general public doesn’t notice them until they are well under way.louis vuitton neverfull (More: Could the Fed Spark the Housing Market?) There is another option for Bernanke, and that is for the Fed to once again use the government’s money to buy U.S. Treasury and mortgage bonds to directly drive down rates. This would also signal that the Fed thinks the economy is weak, but it would do so without an exact date.louis vuitton speedy The problem with that is, the Fed came under massive criticism for its last round of bond buying. After all, taking the government’s money to buy up our own debt seems like financial alchemy. He was called the most inflationary Fed chief ever and a traitor by various GOP presidential candidates. But if Bernanke really wants to boost the economy, he will have to do things that will be unpopular, or more of them.louis vuitton handbags for sale When Paul Volcker raised interest rates to crush inflation, he was widely denounced. Now he is considered a monetary god. If Bernanke wants to be known as the guy who saved the economy, and not just avoided a depression, more bold steps will be needed.
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Gingrich may have peaked in Florida.louis vuitton handbags for sale Forget Newt vs. Mitt, growing economic optimism is the most important indicator of Obama’s re-election fortunes. Romney, immigration and Florida. He has a strong electability argument to make against Gingrich there.cheap gucci belts AARP wonders what happened to Medicare and Social Security debate. National Review revisits Gingrich and Reagan. Newt is actually the Alinskyite. His moon colonization talk is nothing new.louis vuitton backpack for sale The race ruined Perry, who’s now less popular than Obama in Texas. Tax reform, mortgage fraud crackdown face same challenges they did before the State of the Union. No second term for Geithner. The Fed opens up about its inflation target.louis vuitton belts Scott Walker won’t lack for cash to fight the recall effort against him. Obama and Jan Brewer quarrel on the tarmac. And steel yourself for the worst politician interview in history.
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The Romney campaign has another very effective press release, excerpting an article that Elliott Abrams, the former Reagan Assistant Secretary of State For Trading Arms for Hostages, has written about Newt Gingrich’s criticisms of Ronald Reagan’s foreign policy.ugg boots outlet It will come as no great surprise that Gingrich was impatient with Reagan for not obliterating the Soviet Union more quickly. Some excerpts and an additional observation below the fold: Here is Gingrich: ??Measured against the scale and momentum of the Soviet empire??s challenge, the Reagan administration has failed, is failing, and without a dramatic change in strategy will continue to fail. . .replica gucci shoes . President Reagan is clearly failing. ??/strong> Such was Gingrich??s faith in President Reagan that in 1985, he called Reagan??s meeting with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev ??the most dangerous summit for the West since Adolf Hitler met with Neville Chamberlain in 1938 in Munich.?? ??/strong> In Afghanistan, Reagan??s policy was marked by ??impotence [and] incompetence.louis vuitton outlet online?? Thus Gingrich concluded as he surveyed five years of Reagan in power that ??we have been losing the struggle with the Soviet empire.?? Reagan did not know what he was doing, and ??it is precisely at the vision and strategy levels that the Soviet empire today is superior to the free world.?? ??/strong> The second point to make is that Gingrich made these assaults on the Reagan administration just as Democratic attacks were heating up unmercifully. Far from becoming a reliable voice for Reagan policy and the struggle against the Soviets, Gingrich took on Reagan and his administration.ugg boots outlet It appears to be a habit: He did the same to George W. Bush when Bush was making the toughest and most controversial decision of his presidency ?? the surge in Iraq. ??/strong> Bush on the surge and Reagan on the Soviet empire were tough, courageous ?? and right. Newt Gingrich in retrospect seems less the visionary than the politician who refused the party??s leader loyal support on grounds that history has proved were simply wrong.chanel outlet Sure sounds like good old imperious, peremptory, impatient Newt Gingrich to me. But it’s funny, Newt also sounds like imperious, impatient, neoconservative Elliott Abrams to me–and like Newt himself–when it comes to Barack Obama’s policy toward Iran. Abrams is also another of those, like Mitt Romney, who incorrectly describes Obama’s Middle East policy as a “return to the 1967 borders” without adding “with mutually agreed upon land swaps.” I saw him Abrams do that, and be corrected, at the AIPAC convention last spring.loui vuitton And while Abrams has fired a direct torpedo at Gingrich’s Reagan fetishism, it should be noted that the gunner and target share an entirely dangerous, and sometimes illegal, penchant for warmongering.
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2013年11月13日星期三

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In a reversal, Obama signals donors to start funding the super PAC started by his former aide.louis vuitton handbags for sale Democrats return $200k in donations from the family of a fugitive seeking a pardon. Geoffrey Stone on why money is speech. Obama swing voters: young, female and secular. Republicans didn’t like Chrysler’s commercial; Clint Eastwood gave his fee to charity.chanel outlet How Missouri ended up holding a completely pointless primary today. Donald Trump was gracious enough to allow Romney to win Nevada. Payroll tax cut extension debate heads toward derailment. And Congressman Unfamiliar With The Onion.loui vuitton
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Most Americans won’t have the power to choose the next President because they live in states so tilted towards one end of the political spectrum that the election outcome, barring calamity, is not in doubt.louis vuitton handbags for sale Mitt Romney doesn’t really have a chance in California. Barack Obama is not going to win Texas. What matters instead is a group of so-called swing states. And on paper, Obama’s fortunes in these states have declined further and faster than they have for the nation as a whole, both since Obama arrived in Washington, and since the midterm elections in 2010.louis vuitton handbags for sale To draw this conclusion, I looked at state-by-state data recently released by Gallup, and recent Bureau of Labor Statistics reports, analyzing 15 potential swing states. Here’s what I found: –In 9 of the 15 swing states, Obama’s job approval rating declined more between 2010 to 2011 than it did nationally. For instance, in Colorado Obama’s approval rating declined from 45.2% in 2010 to 40.louis vuitton handbags for sale4% in 2011, a drop of 4.8 points. Nationwide, Obama’s approval from 46.8% to 44.chanel handbags for sale4%, or 2.4 points. –In 10 of the 15 states, Obama’s approval rating was lower in 2011 than the national rating of 44.4%.fake louis vuitton Taken as a group, the 15 states gave Obama an average approval rating of 43%. (In the charts below, red text shows state numbers that are worse for Obama than national numbers.) –In 10 of the 15 swing states, Democratic Party identification declined more between 2010 to 2011 than it did nationally. In 11 of the 15 states, the Democratic identification was lower in 2011 than the national number of 43.gucci handbag for sale7%. –In 12 of the 15 swing states, the number of employed residents rose more slowly between December of 2010 and December of 2011 than nationally. For example, Nevada enjoyed only a 0.4% increase total seasonally-adjusted non-farm payrolls over the year, while the nationwide increase was 1.louis vuitton neverfull3%. –In 10 of the 15 states, the decrease in working citizens between December of 2008 and December of 2011 has been greater locally than the nationally. For example, total North Carolina non-farm payroll declined 4.2% between December of 2008 and December of 2011, while national payrolls declined 2.fake louis vuitton3% during the same period. –In 11 out of the 14 swing states that Obama won in 2008, Obama’s approval rating since 2009 has declined more than his margin of victory. For instance, Obama won Pennsylvania by 10.4 points, but has lost 12.gucci outlet online4 points in his approval rating between 2009 and 2011. (In Missouri, which Obama lost by about 0.1%, his approval stood at a paltry 38.6% in 2011, down from 55.fake uggs5% in 2009.) This last data point is by no means determinative, since Obama’s approval rating in 2009 was higher across the board than his margin of victory in 2008. But it does show the large number of one-time Obama fans who have soured on the President. There is still time for the numbers to move in Obama’s direction before the election.gucci handbag for sale More recent Gallup national polls, for example, show increases in presidential approval ratings and economic confidence since 2011. It is also true that the states included in this analysis are not the definitive list of swing states because the electoral map tends to shift over time. But something else is also clear: 2011 was not a good year for Obama nationally. It was even worse in a majority of the states he most needs to win in 2012.chanel handbags for sale
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Reversals in politics are typically cast as character blights.louis vuitton handbags for sale So for politicians preparing major flip-flops, the best defense is often a character-defining offense.? Mitt Romney loves to tell a story about his principled realization that abortion should be outlawed–despite his previous promise to keep it legal–as a tale of his own moral enlightenment. On Monday, when Barack Obama’s campaign reversed its previous pledge to keep a distance from big-spending independent expenditure groups known as super PACs, campaign manager Jim Messina tried to spin it as a tough-guy equality thing. “We Will Not Play By Two Sets Of Rules,” ran the headline of the blog post announcing the switch.gucci outlet online But there is more in common between the two flip-flops than just the spin. In both cases, the changes in position hit a hard to find political sweet spot: They were both politically expeditious and more intellectually defensible than each politician’s previous position. Let’s start with Romney. He ran for Senate in Massachusetts saying that he was personally anti-abortion, but respected the decisions of women who choose otherwise.chanel outlet This works from a distance, but the issue of life is a hard one to meet halfway. He never publicly wrestled with the questions his position raised: Was an unborn fetus in the first trimester an independent life? Did Romney therefore believe that some lives can be taken? By reversing course, he settled this problem, and smoothed his path as a national Republican. Obama’s previous position on super PACs was also intellectually dicey. In 2007, Obama? argued that John Edwards had the power to shut down an independent campaign run on his behalf in Iowa by former aides.louis vuitton replica “The fact is this is someone who worked for John Edwards, for the last who knows how many years, who’s a good friend and colleague of Edwards, who’s now running a 527 that is running ads on behalf of John Edwards,” Obama told reporters at a diner in West Des Moines. “You are telling me he has no influence over him? That’s not true. If Robert Gibbs started running a 527 and I called Robert and said, ‘Stop running ads on my behalf,’ are you suggesting I would have no influence over Robert Gibbs?” This is almost exactly the situation that Obama now found himself in with Priorities USA, a super PAC founded by Gibbs’ former right-hand man, Bill Burton. By making a show of opposing Burton’s effort, Obama opened himself up to the same question he posed to Edwards: Why not call Burton and tell him to shut it down? Now that problem is solved.louis vuitton backpack for sale Obama officially likes what Burton is doing–at least the part that discloses its donors. Obama’s flip-flop had made him more consistent.
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2013年11月9日星期六

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