Hot U.S. housing markets turning cold -James Saft

ReutersEDITION:U.louis vuitton outlet online ReutersEDITION:U.[url=http://www.tustininformationcenter.com title=louis vuitton tote]louis vuitton tote[/url]S.S. SIGN INREGISTER HOME BUSINESS MARKETS WORLD POLITICS TECH OPINION BREAKINGVIEWS MONEY LIFE PICTURES VIDEO » Analysis & Opinion Home Opinion James Saft Follow James Saft View James Saft RSS feed Hot U. SIGN INREGISTER HOME BUSINESS MARKETS WORLD POLITICS TECH OPINION BREAKINGVIEWS MONEY LIFE PICTURES VIDEO » Analysis & Opinion Home Opinion James Saft Follow James Saft View James Saft RSS feed Hot U.S.S. housing markets turning cold -James Saft By James Saft DECEMBER 12, 2013 Email Print inShare Dec 12 (Reuters) – After rapid gains, some of the hottest housing markets in the United States look like they are starting to roll over.louis vuitton neverfull gm housing markets turning cold -James Saft By James Saft DECEMBER 12, 2013 Email Print inShare Dec 12 (Reuters) – After rapid gains, some of the hottest housing markets in the United States look like they are starting to roll over. Whether this is a reaction to the run-up in mortgage interest rates in recent months or represents a waning bid from the all-cash financial investors who have so often been marginal buyers is unclear. Whether this is a reaction to the run-up in mortgage interest rates in recent months or represents a waning bid from the all-cash financial investors who have so often been marginal buyers is unclear. Either way, volatility in house prices may now prove to be a feature of the system rather than a bug. Either way, volatility in house prices may now prove to be a feature of the system rather than a bug.[url=http://www.tustininformationcenter.com title=louis vuitton usa]louis vuitton usa[/url] In Phoenix, where house prices have risen more than 40 percent in less than two years, pending sales fell 32 percent in October, while the number of months (at current sales rates) of supply is up 111 percent from May. In Phoenix, where house prices have risen more than 40 percent in less than two years, pending sales fell 32 percent in October, while the number of months (at current sales rates) of supply is up 111 percent from May. In Sacramento, the October figures are equally grim, with year-on-year supply up 93 percent and sales down 20 percent.louis vuitton usa In Sacramento, the October figures are equally grim, with year-on-year supply up 93 percent and sales down 20 percent. Both Sacramento and Phoenix are markets that have seen a large influx of financial buyers, private equity firms and others trying to put together large portfolios of single-family homes to manage and rent. Both Sacramento and Phoenix are markets that have seen a large influx of financial buyers, private equity firms and others trying to put together large portfolios of single-family homes to manage and rent. Volume isn’t slumping just in the classic boom and bust towns. Volume isn’t slumping just in the classic boom and bust towns. Washington, DC house sales fell 14 percent in November, while sales in Silicon Valley, now in the midst of a technology IPO boom, fell 20. Washington, DC house sales fell 14 percent in November, while sales in Silicon Valley, now in the midst of a technology IPO boom, fell 20.9 percent in November.louis vuitton outlet online9 percent in November.[url=http://www.tustininformationcenter.com title=louis vuitton tote]louis vuitton tote[/url] Mark Hanson, a real estate adviser and mortgage banking veteran, argues that as supply and volume usually lead price, we could be on the verge of a substantial downdraft in values. Mark Hanson, a real estate adviser and mortgage banking veteran, argues that as supply and volume usually lead price, we could be on the verge of a substantial downdraft in values. “I feel like it’s 2006-2007 again,” Hanson said. “I feel like it’s 2006-2007 again,” Hanson said. “Data is everywhere but nobody is looking, or wants to look. “Data is everywhere but nobody is looking, or wants to look.” To say the current state of the real estate market is unusual is an understatement.louis vuitton neverfull gm” To say the current state of the real estate market is unusual is an understatement. Investment firms like Blackstone have raised almost $20 billion to buy as many as 200,000 houses. Investment firms like Blackstone have raised almost $20 billion to buy as many as 200,000 houses. Blackstone itself has bought more than 30,000 so far. Blackstone itself has bought more than 30,000 so far.[url=http://www.tustininformationcenter.com title=louis vuitton usa]louis vuitton usa[/url] While that is not huge compared with the 5 million or so existing U. While that is not huge compared with the 5 million or so existing U.S.louis vuitton toteS. home sales every year, these funds have been joined by uncounted legions of mom and pop outfits cobbling together mini-rental empires. home sales every year, these funds have been joined by uncounted legions of mom and pop outfits cobbling together mini-rental empires. That has been a boon to a market that otherwise faces some difficult math. That has been a boon to a market that otherwise faces some difficult math. According to Hanson, about 22 percent of mortgage borrowers are underwater, meaning they owe more than their house will fetch. According to Hanson, about 22 percent of mortgage borrowers are underwater, meaning they owe more than their house will fetch. Add to that the number with bad credit, no job or simply not enough equity to pay real estate and moving costs and you have a market in which 40-50 percent of mortgagees are trapped, he argues.louis vuitton neverfull gm Add to that the number with bad credit, no job or simply not enough equity to pay real estate and moving costs and you have a market in which 40-50 percent of mortgagees are trapped, he argues.[url=http://www.tustininformationcenter.com title=louis vuitton usa]louis vuitton usa[/url] QE, CREDIT AND THE FINANCIALIZATION OF EVERYTHING Given how hedge funds and private equity are paid, they are likely to have been impatient buyers of real estate. QE, CREDIT AND THE FINANCIALIZATION OF EVERYTHING Given how hedge funds and private equity are paid, they are likely to have been impatient buyers of real estate. If that bid is fading and we are heading for yet another strong fall in housing prices, we are going to have to face up to a distressing reality: shelter prices have become highly volatile, perhaps on an ongoing basis. If that bid is fading and we are heading for yet another strong fall in housing prices, we are going to have to face up to a distressing reality: shelter prices have become highly volatile, perhaps on an ongoing basis. I’d argue this has strong parallels in other markets and has in part been driven by monetary policy, though obviously the approach to the banking and mortgage fiascos has also played a huge role. I’d argue this has strong parallels in other markets and has in part been driven by monetary policy, though obviously the approach to the banking and mortgage fiascos has also played a huge role. Compare the U.louis vuitton neverfull gm Compare the U.S.S. housing market with the credit markets, as detailed in a recent Bank for International Settlements study. housing market with the credit markets, as detailed in a recent Bank for International Settlements study.[url=http://www.tustininformationcenter.com title=louis vuitton usa]louis vuitton usa[/url] Both markets are very “hot” with lots of investors competing to take on risk, sometimes in ways that have not historically had a good track record. Both markets are very “hot” with lots of investors competing to take on risk, sometimes in ways that have not historically had a good track record. In housing, the new marginal buyer is a financial buyer, just like in the credit markets, where the buyer is an investor in publicly issued securities.louis vuitton outlet online In housing, the new marginal buyer is a financial buyer, just like in the credit markets, where the buyer is an investor in publicly issued securities. Yet the traditional buyers of both credit and housing are arguably still in bad shape. Yet the traditional buyers of both credit and housing are arguably still in bad shape. Banks are still funding themselves on worse terms than the non-financial corporations they serve, while actual owner-occupiers are, as detailed above, also partly taken out of the game. Banks are still funding themselves on worse terms than the non-financial corporations they serve, while actual owner-occupiers are, as detailed above, also partly taken out of the game. So what happens in a situation where monetary policy drives hot money? If interest rates rise, as they are now, and surely will when the Federal Reserve slows its bond buying, the hot market often turns cold. So what happens in a situation where monetary policy drives hot money? If interest rates rise, as they are now, and surely will when the Federal Reserve slows its bond buying, the hot market often turns cold. Indeed, the slowing in real estate may well have been driven by a taper-driven run up in mortgage rates earlier this year.louis vuitton tote Indeed, the slowing in real estate may well have been driven by a taper-driven run up in mortgage rates earlier this year.[url=http://www.tustininformationcenter.com title=louis vuitton usa]louis vuitton usa[/url] What we have done in both cases is to paper over cracks in the foundations of the market by bringing in new investors while not properly sorting out the traditional risk-takers, be they banks or underwater homeowners. What we have done in both cases is to paper over cracks in the foundations of the market by bringing in new investors while not properly sorting out the traditional risk-takers, be they banks or underwater homeowners. What this will mean for borrowers when rates rise is a credit crunch that exposes the existing problems within the banking system. What this will mean for borrowers when rates rise is a credit crunch that exposes the existing problems within the banking system. For actual homeowners, this means they will face substantial ongoing volatility in their most important, arguably indispensable asset – housing. For actual homeowners, this means they will face substantial ongoing volatility in their most important, arguably indispensable asset – housing. If you scraped together 15 percent down to buy in Sacramento two months ago, you may well find yourself underwater in a year.louis vuitton usa If you scraped together 15 percent down to buy in Sacramento two months ago, you may well find yourself underwater in a year. That kind of volatility is costly, and not just in economic terms. That kind of volatility is costly, and not just in economic terms. Financial markets are great and useful things, but they are not the answer to all problems. Financial markets are great and useful things, but they are not the answer to all problems.[url=http://www.tustininformationcenter.com title=louis vuitton usa]louis vuitton usa[/url] (At the time of publication James Saft did not own any direct investments in securities mentioned in this article. (At the time of publication James Saft did not own any direct investments in securities mentioned in this article. He may be an owner indirectly as an investor in a fund.louis vuitton usa He may be an owner indirectly as an investor in a fund. You can email him at jamessaft@jamessaft. You can email him at jamessaft@jamessaft.com and find more columns at blogs.com and find more columns at blogs.reuters.reuters.com/james-saft) (Editing by Dan Grebler) « PREVIOUS POST More From Reuters North Korean leader\'s influential aunt remains in power after uncle… Will Fed end 2013 with bang or whimper? Is there a way around the sale of ‘blood gold’? 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If you see a comment that you believe is irrelevant or inappropriate, you can flag it to our editors by using the report abuse links.louis vuitton usa If you see a comment that you believe is irrelevant or inappropriate, you can flag it to our editors by using the report abuse links. Views expressed in the comments do not represent those of Reuters. Views expressed in the comments do not represent those of Reuters. For more information on our comment policy, see http://blogs. For more information on our comment policy, see http://blogs.[url=http://www.tustininformationcenter.com title=louis vuitton tote]louis vuitton tote[/url]reuters.reuters.com/fulldisclosure/2010/09/27/toward-a-more-thoughtful-conversation-on-stories/ James Saft is a Reuters columnist.louis vuitton usacom/fulldisclosure/2010/09/27/toward-a-more-thoughtful-conversation-on-stories/ James Saft is a Reuters columnist. ANY OPINIONS EXPRESSED HERE ARE THE AUTHOR’S OWN. ANY OPINIONS EXPRESSED HERE ARE THE AUTHOR’S OWN. 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SaftMuch at stake for EM on jobs Friday: James Saft MORE REUTERS NEWS Central African Republic leader in talks with militiasSaved a state bailout, Slovenes question hefty banking billGunmen attack army in Lebanon\'s Sidon, five killedEU suspends trade talks with Ukraine, crowds rally against governmentFed could set off year-end fireworks TAG CLOUD austerity bailout banking bank of england Banks ben bernanke bonds Central Banks china davos davos2008 davos2009 debt dollar ECB economics economy EU euro europe euro zone Fed federal reserve finance France greece housing market IMF india inflation Ireland James Saft Japan monetary policy Obama oil QE QE2 quantitative easing regulation tim geithner U.[url=http://www.tustininformationcenter.com title=louis vuitton usa]louis vuitton usa[/url]S.S. u. u.s.s. politics us politics Wall Street ARCHIVES December 2013November 2013October 2013September 2013August 2013July 2013June 2013May 2013April 2013March 2013February 2013January 2013December 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